Black Friday without deep discounts: the six-wave season
Most brands treat Black Friday as one weekend and one big discount. Everybody bids for the same days, ads get expensive, and the margin goes into the discount. For a luxury retailer that made $9M online in one Q4 on $740K in ad spend, we did it differently: six waves, hero products and honest scarcity. This guide shows how to plan it.
Why one big weekend is expensive
In the days around Black Friday, almost every brand raises its budget at the same time. Ad auctions get crowded and each impression costs more. If your whole plan is one deep discount on those days, you pay the highest ad prices of the year and give away margin on top.
There are two more costs that don’t show up in the Q4 report. Deep discounts teach customers to wait for the next one, so full-price sales get harder in January. And for a premium or luxury brand, they change how the brand is seen. You can still have a record Q4 without them.
Where the season gets expensive
Ad costs climb into Black Friday weekend. Spreading the season over six waves means less of the budget lands on the most expensive days.
Split the season into six waves
Instead of one weekend, start earlier and give different buyers their own moment. Each wave has one job, one audience and one message.
Six waves, six different buyers
Each wave reaches a different part of the market, instead of everybody fighting over the same weekend.
| Wave | Who it’s for | The message | What you offer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pre-Black Friday | Early planners, loyal customers | “Get it before everyone else.” | Early access to hero products, a gift, or free shipping |
| 2. Singles Day (11.11) | Younger, online-first shoppers | “One day only.” | A small, time-limited offer |
| 3. Last chance | People who want a specific product | “Likely sold out before Black Friday.” | Scarcity on hero products, no extra discount |
| 4. Black Friday | Everyone who waited | “It’s here.” | Your main offer, ideally a bundle or gift, not only a percentage |
| 5. Cyber Monday | Late and online-only shoppers | “Last day of the sale.” | The main offer, or a small online-only extra |
| 6. Post-Black Friday | Gift buyers | “Arrives before Christmas.” | Gift wrapping, gift sets, a clear last shipping date |
The offers get stronger only where they have to. Early waves sell on access and desire, the last-chance wave sells on scarcity, and the main offer is saved for the people who really wait for Black Friday.
Three waves, three different ads
Same hero product, a different reason to buy in each wave.
Use scarcity instead of a deeper discount
The hook that carried the luxury retailer’s season was simple: we told customers that certain products would probably sell out before Black Friday. If they wanted them, they had to buy now.
“It wasn’t the maximum saving. But people were competing for a very desirable product, and they actually played that game with us.”
Pedram Ghozat, founder of MediaBoostr
This only works when it’s true, and it only works on products people really want. Before you use it:
Honest scarcity
- Products where demand is higher than stock
- Limited colors, sizes or production runs
- “Likely sold out before Black Friday”, said plainly
- Restocks only when you say so
Fake scarcity
- Countdown timers that reset on every visit
- “Only 3 left” on a product you have hundreds of
- “Last chance” every week
- Costs you trust as soon as people notice
Lead with hero products
Every brand has a few products that new customers want most. Those are the best entry points in Q4: they get the ads, their own landing pages and the scarcity message. Once someone has bought a hero product, the rest of the range is much easier to sell to them, by email or on the next visit.
A hero product isn’t simply your best seller. Check four things:
- Demand from new customers. Which product do first-time buyers pick most often?
- Margin. It has to carry a higher CAC in Q4 and still leave profit.
- Stock depth. Enough to last the season, or a clear limit you can use for scarcity.
- How it looks in an ad. Some products sell well in store and poorly on a phone screen.
Picking the hero product
Score your candidates on four things, not on sales alone.
Wool coat ENTRY?
Leather bag HERO
Silk scarf ADD-ON
Pace the budget across the waves
With six waves, the budget doesn’t have to pile up on one weekend. Spend more where ads are still affordable and the audience is fresh, and hold enough back for the main days. Watch results daily and move budget between waves instead of sticking to the plan.
An example budget split
Most of the budget runs outside the most expensive days.
Get the pages ready before the traffic comes
Q4 traffic is the most expensive traffic of the year, so fix conversion before it arrives. For the luxury retailer, conversion rate optimization on the existing product pages came first, before any extra ad spend. Before the first wave goes live:
- Check the product pages of your hero products on a phone. Price, reviews and the add-to-cart button should be visible without scrolling.
- Build one landing page per wave, so the page repeats what the ad promised.
- Show shipping deadlines everywhere in December. “Order by Dec 18 for Christmas” is itself a reason to buy.
- Prepare ads for every wave in advance. Don’t write the Cyber Monday ads on Sunday night.
- Make sure stock, shipping and customer service can handle the peak.
Want the details on the product page itself? See how we work.
A simple timeline
Plan
Hero products, stock check, the six waves and one message each.
Build
Product pages fixed, one landing page per wave.
Produce
Ads for every wave, approved and scheduled.
Run
Waves 1 to 5. Watch stock and ad costs daily.
Gift + review
Gift wave, then write down what worked for next year.
Judge the season honestly
In Q4, blended numbers look great because demand is high everywhere. Blended ROAS (also called MER) divides all revenue by ad spend. For a brand with strong existing demand, part of that revenue would have come without ads.
Blended vs. attributable ROAS
Know both numbers before you decide next year’s budget.
After the season, write down per wave: what you spent, what it brought in, which products sold out and which ads worked. That’s the plan for next year. Read the full story in the case study: how a luxury retailer turned $740K in ad spend into $9M in one Q4.
The short version
- Start earlier and split Q4 into six waves, each with one job, one audience and one message.
- Replace the deep discount with honest scarcity on products people really want.
- Lead with hero products: new-customer demand, margin, stock and how they look in an ad.
- Pace the budget across the waves instead of piling it onto one weekend.
- Fix pages and prepare every wave’s ads before the expensive traffic arrives.
- Judge the season by incremental revenue, not only blended ROAS.
FAQ
When should a brand start its Black Friday campaign?
Earlier than the weekend itself. Start with a pre-Black Friday wave in early November, add Singles Day on 11.11 and a last-chance wave the week before, then Black Friday, Cyber Monday and a post-Black Friday gift wave into December. Plan it about eight weeks ahead so pages, ads and stock are ready.
Can you do well on Black Friday without big discounts?
Yes. A luxury retailer made $9M online in one Q4 on $740K in ad spend using six sale waves, hero products as entry points and scarcity instead of deep discounts. Honest scarcity on desirable products can do the work a bigger discount usually does, and protects margin and positioning.
What should you offer in each Black Friday wave?
Early waves sell on access and desire: early access to hero products, a gift or free shipping. The last-chance wave sells on honest scarcity. The main offer, ideally a bundle or gift rather than only a percentage off, is saved for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The December wave sells on gift wrapping and delivery before Christmas.
How do you use scarcity without losing trust?
Only use it when it’s true. Check stock, pick the products where demand is higher than supply, and tell customers plainly that those products will probably sell out before Black Friday. Fake timers and invented low-stock warnings damage trust once people notice.
How should you split the ad budget across Q4?
Spread it across the waves instead of putting most of it on Black Friday weekend, when ad costs peak. One example split is 15% pre-Black Friday, 10% Singles Day, 20% last chance, 25% Black Friday, 12% Cyber Monday and 18% for the December gift wave. Move budget daily toward the waves that perform.
What is the difference between blended ROAS and attributable ROAS in Q4?
Blended ROAS, or MER, divides all revenue by ad spend. Attributable ROAS estimates only the revenue that ads actually created. In Q4 the blended number is inflated by demand that would have come anyway, so look at both before deciding next year’s budget.